A market efficiency barometer

How much exploitable structure is in this market, right now?

One number, zero to one hundred. Built from nonparametric mutual information. No Gaussian assumptions. Below twenty, the past tells you nothing. Above fifty, real patterns exist and active strategies have edge.

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0 — 20
Efficient
Random walk. No exploitable signal. Index it.
20 — 50
Mild
Modest structure. Tactical or vol strategies have edge.
50 — 100
Inefficient
Strong dependence. Active strategies dominate.
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Method

Kraskov–Stögbauer–Grassberger nonparametric MI on three channels (level, volatility, joint), maximum to avoid double counting. Gaussian multi-lag baseline anchors scale. Hill estimator for tails, Ljung–Box Q for serial dependence.